Estimation of pseudo-failure lifetime distribution for photovoltaic modules based on accelerated degradation

Gui-xiong LIU; Rong-bin YU; Huan XU

doi:10.3788/OPE.20162409.2183

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Estimation of pseudo-failure lifetime distribution for photovoltaic modules based on accelerated degradation

Modern Applied Optics | 更新时间：2020-07-07

- Estimation of pseudo-failure lifetime distribution for photovoltaic modules based on accelerated degradation
- Optics and Precision Engineering Vol. 24, Issue 9, Pages: 2183-2191(2016)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.华南理工大学机械与汽车工程学院, 广东广州 510640
  2.广东产品质量监督检验研究院, 广东广州 510330
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.3788/OPE.20162409.2183
  CLC： TM914.4;TB114.3
- Received：19 February 2016，
  
  Accepted：20 April 2016，
  
  Published：2016-06
- 稿件说明：
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Gui-xiong LIU, Rong-bin YU, Huan XU. Estimation of pseudo-failure lifetime distribution for photovoltaic modules based on accelerated degradation[J]. Optics and precision engineering, 2016, 24(9): 2183-2191.
DOI：

Gui-xiong LIU, Rong-bin YU, Huan XU. Estimation of pseudo-failure lifetime distribution for photovoltaic modules based on accelerated degradation[J]. Optics and precision engineering, 2016, 24(9): 2183-2191. DOI： 10.3788/OPE.20162409.2183.

摘要

开展了加速退化条件下光伏组件产品可靠度评估的研究，提出了新型的基于GLD的光伏组件的伪失效寿命分布估算方法。首先，利用可决系数检验法（

）优选最佳加速退化轨迹，得到样本组伪失效寿命值。然后，应用Bootstrap法产生自助样本扩充样本群，构建基于GLD的伪失效寿命分布模型，该模型无需预设先验分布，即可真实反映不同加速条件下光伏组件伪失效寿命分布形态。最后，以18 W小功率Mono-Si单晶硅光伏组件加速性能退化数据为例，估算了光伏组件在加速退化条件下的伪失效寿命分布和可靠度。结果表明：在加速退化条件下，本文方法得到的可靠度曲线与试验数据拟合结果很好，绝对误差基本在±300 h内，相对误差不超过±15%，满足工程预测精度需求。

Abstract

This paper focuses on the reliability evaluation of photovoltaic(PV) module products under accelerated degradation conditions. A method to estimate the pseudo failure life distribution of PV modules based on the Generalized Lambda Distribution(GLD) was proposed. Firstly

the determinative coefficient test method(

) was used to select the best accelerated degradation path to obtain pseudo failure life values of samples. Then

the bootstrap method was taken to generate bootstrap samples to expand the sample group and to build a pseudo failure life distribution model based on GLD

which could truly reflect the pseudo failure life distribution of PV modules under different acceleration conditions without presetting the prior distribution

Finally

by taking accelerated performance degradation data of a 18 W small power Mono-Si silicon PV module as an example

the pseudo failure life distribution and reliability of PV modules were estimated under accelerated degradation conditions. The results show that this method obtains pseudo failure life distribution in accelerated degradation conditions

and reliability curves and the experimental data results fit well. Moreover

the absolute error of fitting curve is basically in 300 h

and the relative error is not more than 15%. These results meet the demand of engineering forecast precision.

关键词

Keywords

references

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