加速退化下光伏组件伪失效寿命分布估算

刘桂雄; 余荣斌; 徐欢

doi:10.3788/OPE.20162409.2183

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

加速退化下光伏组件伪失效寿命分布估算

现代应用光学 | 更新时间：2020-07-07

- 加速退化下光伏组件伪失效寿命分布估算
- Estimation of pseudo-failure lifetime distribution for photovoltaic modules based on accelerated degradation
- 光学精密工程 2016年24卷第9期页码：2183-2191
- 作者机构：
  
  1.华南理工大学机械与汽车工程学院, 广东广州 510640
  2.广东产品质量监督检验研究院, 广东广州 510330
- 作者简介：
  
  [ "刘桂雄(1968-)，男，广东揭阳人，教授，1990年、1995年于重庆大学分别获得学士、博士学位，主要研究方向为测试计量技术及仪器。E-mail：megxliu@scut.edu.cn" ]
  余荣斌(1977-)，男，江西景德镇人，博士研究生，高级工程师，1999年、2002年于华南师范大学分别获得学士、硕士学位，主要研究方向为产品可靠性检测。E-mail：robinyu@qq.comE-mail:robinyu@qq.com
- 基金信息：
  
  国家质量监督检验检疫总局资助项目(2014QK050);广东省科技厅公益研究与能力建设专项资助项目(2014A040401045)
- DOI：10.3788/OPE.20162409.2183
  中图分类号： TM914.4;TB114.3
- 收稿日期：2016-02-19，
  
  录用日期：2016-4-20，
  
  纸质出版日期：2016-06
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
刘桂雄, 余荣斌, 徐欢. 加速退化下光伏组件伪失效寿命分布估算[J]. 光学精密工程, 2016,24(9):2183-2191.

Gui-xiong LIU, Rong-bin YU, Huan XU. Estimation of pseudo-failure lifetime distribution for photovoltaic modules based on accelerated degradation[J]. Optics and precision engineering, 2016, 24(9): 2183-2191.
刘桂雄, 余荣斌, 徐欢. 加速退化下光伏组件伪失效寿命分布估算[J]. 光学精密工程, 2016,24(9):2183-2191. DOI： 10.3788/OPE.20162409.2183.

Gui-xiong LIU, Rong-bin YU, Huan XU. Estimation of pseudo-failure lifetime distribution for photovoltaic modules based on accelerated degradation[J]. Optics and precision engineering, 2016, 24(9): 2183-2191. DOI： 10.3788/OPE.20162409.2183.

摘要

开展了加速退化条件下光伏组件产品可靠度评估的研究，提出了新型的基于GLD的光伏组件的伪失效寿命分布估算方法。首先，利用可决系数检验法（

）优选最佳加速退化轨迹，得到样本组伪失效寿命值。然后，应用Bootstrap法产生自助样本扩充样本群，构建基于GLD的伪失效寿命分布模型，该模型无需预设先验分布，即可真实反映不同加速条件下光伏组件伪失效寿命分布形态。最后，以18 W小功率Mono-Si单晶硅光伏组件加速性能退化数据为例，估算了光伏组件在加速退化条件下的伪失效寿命分布和可靠度。结果表明：在加速退化条件下，本文方法得到的可靠度曲线与试验数据拟合结果很好，绝对误差基本在±300 h内，相对误差不超过±15%，满足工程预测精度需求。

Abstract

This paper focuses on the reliability evaluation of photovoltaic(PV) module products under accelerated degradation conditions. A method to estimate the pseudo failure life distribution of PV modules based on the Generalized Lambda Distribution(GLD) was proposed. Firstly

the determinative coefficient test method(

) was used to select the best accelerated degradation path to obtain pseudo failure life values of samples. Then

the bootstrap method was taken to generate bootstrap samples to expand the sample group and to build a pseudo failure life distribution model based on GLD

which could truly reflect the pseudo failure life distribution of PV modules under different acceleration conditions without presetting the prior distribution

Finally

by taking accelerated performance degradation data of a 18 W small power Mono-Si silicon PV module as an example

the pseudo failure life distribution and reliability of PV modules were estimated under accelerated degradation conditions. The results show that this method obtains pseudo failure life distribution in accelerated degradation conditions

and reliability curves and the experimental data results fit well. Moreover

the absolute error of fitting curve is basically in 300 h

and the relative error is not more than 15%. These results meet the demand of engineering forecast precision.

关键词

Keywords

references

晁代宏, 马静, 陈淑英.应用多元性能退化量评估光纤陀螺贮存的可靠性[J].光学精密工程, 2011(1):35-39.

CHAO D H, MA J, CHEN SH Y.Assessment of storage reliability for FOGs by multivariate degradati-on data[J].Opt. Precision Eng., 2011(1):35-39.(in Chinese)

余荣斌, 刘桂雄, 徐欢.基于β分布统示法的光伏组件性能退化可靠度估算[J].仪器仪表学报, 2015, 11:2586-2593.

YU R B, LIU G X, XU H.β-distribution uniform expression for photovoltaic modules reliability evaluation based on degradation data distribution[J].Chinese Journal of Scientific Instrument, 2015, 11:2586-2593.(in Chinese)

刘桂雄, 何建林, 余荣斌.光伏组件可靠性评估的研究现状与思考[J].现代制造工程, 2014(12):123-126.

LIU G X, HE J L, YU R B.Research status and ponderation of reliability evaluatingmethods on PV modules[J].Modern Manufacturing Engineering, 2014(12):123-126.(in Chinese)

CHEN Z H, ZHENG SH R. Lifetime distribution based degradationanalysis[J]. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 2005, 54(1):3-10.

NELSON W B.Accelerated Testing:Statistical Models, Test Plans, and Data Analysis[M].New York:John Wiley & Sons, 2009:493-544.

LU J C, MEEKER W Q. Using degradation measures to estimate a time-to-failure distribution[J]. Technimetrics, 1993, 35(2):161-174.

肖承地, 刘春军, 刘卫东, 等.基于加速性能退化的LED灯具可靠性评估[J].发光学报, 2014(9):1143-1150.

XIAO CH D, LIU CH J, LIU W D, et al.. Reliability assessment of led lamp based on acceleration degradation test[J].Chinese Journal of Luminescence, 2014(9):1143-1150.(in Chinese)

LEE T H, PARK K Y. Degradation analysis of anode-supported intermediate temperature-solid oxide fuel cells under various failure modes[J]. Journal of Power Sources, 2015, 276(1):120-132.

邓爱民, 陈循, 张春华, 等.基于性能退化数据的可靠性评估[J].宇航学报, 2006(3):546-552.

DENG A M, CHEN X, ZHANG CH H, et al..Reliability assessment based on performancedegrada-tiondata[J]. Journal of Astronautics, 2006(3):546-552.(in Chinese)

郭伟玲, 樊星, 崔德胜, 等.一种基于伪失效寿命的LED可靠性快速评价方法[J].发光学报, 2013(2):213-217.

GUO W L, FAN X, CUI D SH, et al..Rapid reliability evaluation method of LED based on pseudo-failure lifetime[J].Chinese Journal of Luminescence, 2013(2):213-217.(in Chinese)

柳爱利, 寇方勇, 寇昆湖.基于伪寿命分布的退化数据可靠性评估方法[J].火力与指挥控制, 2014(8):102-105.

LIU A L, KOU F Y, KOU K H.Study on Reliability assessment of degradation date based on pseudo life distribution[J].Fire Control & Command Control, 2014(8):102-105.(in Chinese)

ALLEN F Z, DAVID P D.Photovoltaic moduleweather durability & reliability testing[J]. Solar Energy Competence Center, Atlas Material Testing Technology LLC, 2012.

高攀东, 沈雪瑾, 陈晓阳, 等.基于自助法的小样本Weibull分布可靠性分析[J].机械设计与研究, 2015, 02:164-167.

GAO P D, SHEN X J, CHEN X Y, et al..Reliability analysis under weibulldistribution in small samples based on bootstrap[J].Machine Design and Research, 2015, 02:164-167.(in Chinese)

姜焰鸣, 刘桂雄.形状误差粒子群算法智能评定的β分布统示法[J].华南理工大学学报(自然科学版), 2012, 12:30-34+40.

JIANG Y M, LIU G X.β-distribution uniform expression for intelligent form error evaluationbased on particle swarm optimization algorithm[J].Journal of South China University of Technology(Natural Science Edition), 2012, 12:30-34+40.(in Chinese)

ZAVEN A, KARIAN. Fitting Statistical Distributions:The Ge-neralized Lambda Distribution and Generalized Bootstrap Methods[M]. USA:CRC Press, 2000.

CEI/IEC 61215, Crystalline silicon terrestrialphotovoltaic(PV) modules-Design qualification and type approval[S]. Geneva, Switzerland:IEC, 2005.

张慰, 李晓阳, 姜同敏, 等.基于BP神经网络的多应力加速寿命试验预测方法[J].航空学报, 2009(9):1691-1696

ZHANG W, LI X Y, JIANG T M, et al..Life-prediction of multi-stress accelerated life testing based on BP algorithm of artificial neural network[J].Acta aeronautica ET Astronautica Sinica, 2009(9):1691-1696.(in Chinese)

浏览量

535

下载量

CSCD

文章被引用时，请邮件提醒。

提交

工具集

关联资源

累积冲击作用下可恢复退化过程的可靠度评估